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Another view of Men's Odds: first action within the hour

January 15, 2012 | 05:17 PM

ESPN2 launches live coverage at 6:30 tonight.

Jeff Sackmann reported results from his simulation of the draw today on

My simulation of the Australian Open draw gives a heavy edge to Novak Djokovic, with a 25.8% chance of winning it all. Nadal is next at 15.1%, followed by Federer at 12.7% and Murray at 9.3%. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, at 5.3%, is the only other man with better than a one in twenty chance of winning the slam.

Seems kind of crazy as someone who finished 2011 with 3 straight titles and has the best Open era record in Australia (59-8) with 5 Oz Open titles and is ranked 3rd in the world, Federer earns only a 1 in 8 shot to win in Jeff's system (Betfair had him at 9/2, and has Azarenka at better than 1 in 8 to win the women's title).

For Jeff's 1st round match-by-match predictions, go to:

I agree that Verdasco is the MOST likely seed to fall (to TOMIC) on the opening day, with Monaco a close second (to Kolhschreiber (the winner draws Fish in the 3rd round).

Tomic or Verdasco will meet Dolgopolov in the 3rd round, followed by Federer. The other upset possible in Fed's immediate bracket is Melzer who drew the King of Aces, Ivo Karlovic in the 1st round. Ivo bangs a tour leading 25 aces per match (career average).

Next in Aces per match (career):

- Isner 15

- Lopez 11.4

- Roddick 11.1

- Tsonga 9.9

- Soderlng 8

- Dologopolov 8

- Federer 7.25

- Berdych 6.9

- Murray 6.7


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