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Guest Blog

Day 1 Men's, Women's Match Ups are hot

January 14, 2012 | 10:59 PM

A look at the current Betfair ODDS on the women tells the same old story - but do we believe it?

Compare them to the men's and see which favorites you'd rather bet (beneath these players, the odds fall off a cliff):

Kvitova 3/1 Joker 6/4

Williams 9/2 Federer 9/2

Azarenka 13/2 Murray 7/1

Clijsters 12/1 Rafa 7.5/1

Na Li 13/1 Tsonga 21/1

Wozniacki 19/1 Del Potro 24/1

Stosur 23/1 Berdych 45/1

Radwanska 29/1

Sharapova 39/1

Based on recent history and Major performance in the last years, there is a 19 out of 20 chance that one of the top 4 men will win the tournament (and the odds are that Tsonga has about 1 chance in 20). While the same might be true of Wozniacki's chance based on history and her 19/1 odds, I can't understand why anyone would bet on Serena to make it through the first week, let alone 7 rounds at 9/2, and with Clijsters six months removed from competitive play, it's hard to bet on her getting out of the first week at 12/1. Azarenka won in Sydney on Saturday over Na Li in 3 sets: she may be as likely to lose Monday to Heather Watson as she is a 13/2 favorite to win the title. In her quarter she may face Schiavone, Peng, Goerges or Radwanska - none having odds short of ridiculous but being about as likely to win the title as the #1 seed.

KVITOVA has won one major and can't be a reasonable bet at 3/1 except in the absence of other serious contenders.

STOSUR, who won the a major after Kvitova last year, is a much better bet at 23/1.

So much for the odds. The draw doesn't tell us much more; in fact, I can't begin to parse it much past the first round, so let's look at what starts at some insane hour tomorrow morning. Ten Americans see action tomorrow in the 90 degree plus temps...

WOMEN: Key Match-ups

- Azarenka v Watson

- Radwanska v Mattek-Sands (USA)

- Safarova v McHale (USA)

- Hantuchova v Lepchenko (USA)

- Brianti v Falconi (USA)

MEN: Key match-ups

- Tomic v Verdasco

- Del Potro v Mannarino

- Rafa v Kuznetsov (USA)

- Fish (USA) v Muller

- Nalbandian v Nieminen (winner in Sydney)

- Baghdatis v Becker

- Isner (USA) v Mitchell

- Melzer v Karlovic

- Ljubicic v Lacko

- Haas v Kudla (USA)

- Gojowczyk v Young (USA)

- de Schepper v Querrey (USA)

Rick

Australian Open 1.15.12


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