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Paris: Del Potro withdraws; Federer top odds

Paris 1st Rd Results; Tuesday schedule; scenarios for final 7 to qualify for 3 spots in London


November 07, 2011 | 05:15 PM

The scariest contender for London beneath the top 8 (#10 Juan Del Potro) dropped out of Paris (and therefore out of contention) with a sore shoulder.

Given the conditioning struggles of the top players relative to Federer, who feels rested, fit, and hungry to win Paris for the first time after his Basel title, #4 is now being perceived as more than the 'danger' he now states it is his goal to be in the months ahead. On Betfair, Roger is the favorite over Joker by more than 2:1, and over Murray by almost 2:1. Beneath these 3, Tsonga at 7:1 (a former champion in Paris) is the only player with odds lower than 25:1 (Ferrer).

Rog's chances would be further enhanced if not for the fact that the surface is now very, very slow, (Murray's words after practice). Last year it was fast, and Roger got to the semis (lost to Monfils).

Besides results and the schedule for Tuesday (BELOW), what's left to report today are the silly scenarios existing for anyone below #8 to qualify.

This table simplifies things, showing the current order among the 7 active contenders along with the round they need to reach to GUARANTEE qualification and the seeds in their bracket competing for that round:

Current RANK (YTD) Paris Result Needed Players competing in same Paris bracket/ H2H records

6. Berdych quarterfinals Verdasco, Bogomolov, #11 seed Tipsarevic /0-4 *

7. Tsonga quarterfinals Garcia-Lopez, Seppi, #9 Almagro / 5-0 **

8. Fish quarterfinals Mayer, Monaco, Young, #10 seed Simon / 1-2 ***

----------------

9. Almagro Champion (can also qualify by reaching final, depending /****)

[10. Del Potro Withdrew, out of contention]

11. Tipsarevic Champion (can also qualify by reaching final, depending /*****)

12. Simon Champion

[13. Soderling Inactive, out of contention]

14. Monfils Champion Will qualify unless Fish reaches 3rd round

* (Berdych - Tipsarevic: 0 - 4) The Serb has beaten him twice in 2011 on hard courts, in the quarters of Montreal and the 3rd round of The Open.

** (Tsonga - Almagro: 5 - 0) In 2011, Jo has beaten him twice in straight sets, once on hard courts at Montreal.

*** (Fish - Simon: 1 - 2) In 2011, Fish lost to Simon at the french Open; on hard courts in 2010, he beat Gilles in Cincinnati.

**** IF Almagro loses in the final, he will qualify UNLESS three of these scenarios occur:

- Berdych reaches 3rd Rd

- Tsonga reaches 3rd Rd

- Fish reaches QF

- Tipsarevic wins title

- Simon wins title

***** IF Tipsarevic loses in the final, he will qualify UNLESS one of these scenarios occur:

- Fish reaches 3rd Rd

- Almagro wins title

- Monfils wins title

There are various alternative qualification scenarios for how each of the 7 men could qualify (depending on what other contenders do) - visit them on the ATP site if you wish a laugh:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2011/11/Features/Paris-London-Finals-Qualifying-Scenarios.aspx

Here are the scenarios for FISH to qualify if he does not reach the quarters:

IF Fish loses in 2nd RD, he will qualify UNLESS one of these scenarios occur:

- Almagro reaches final

- Tipsarevic reaches final

- Simon wins title

- Monfils wins title

IF Fish loses in 3rd RD, he will qualify UNLESS three of these scenarios occur:

- Berdych reaches 3nd Rd

- Tsonga reaches 3rd Rd

- Almagro reaches final

- Tipsarevic wins title

- Simon wins title

Today's 1st round results:

07.11.2011 R64 N Mahut defeats J Ferrero 62 63 Match Stats H2H

07.11.2011 R64 A Mannarino defeats D Tursunov 62 62 Match Stats H2H

07.11.2011 R64 F Verdasco defeats M Cilic 36 62 63 Match Stats H2H

07.11.2011 R64 J Benneteau defeats M Raonic 67(5) 76(5) 64 Match Stats H2H

07.11.2011 R64 P Kohlschreiber defeats M Youzhny 64 62 Match Stats H2H

07.11.2011 R64 A Bogomolov Jr. defeats T Bellucci 46 76(4) 62 Match Stats H2H

07.11.2011 R64 G Garcia-Lopez defeats S Giraldo 64 16 64 Match Stats H2H

07.11.2011 R64 F Mayer defeats R Stepanek 75 63 Match Stats H2H

07.11.2011 R64 A Seppi defeats N Davydenko 76(2) 75 Match Stats H2H

07.11.2011 R64 K Anderson defeats G Muller 63 46 64 Match Stats H2H

Tuesday's Schedule:

TUESDAY, 8 NOVEMBER, 2011

CENTRAL COURT start 11:00 am

[5] T Berdych (CZE) vs F Verdasco (ESP)

M Llodra (FRA) vs F Lopez (ESP)

[13] A Roddick (USA) vs [WC] J Benneteau (FRA)

C Fleming (GBR) / J Murray (GBR) vs F Lopez (ESP) / F Verdasco (ESP)

Not Before 7:30 PM

G Garcia-Lopez (ESP) vs [6] J Tsonga (FRA)

Not Before 8:30 PM

[16] R Gasquet (FRA) vs K Anderson (RSA)

COURT 1 start 11:00 am

F Fognini (ITA) vs I Dodig (CRO)

K Nishikori (JPN) vs [Q] S Stakhovsky (UKR)

[WC] J Chardy (FRA) vs M Granollers (ESP)

S Wawrinka (SUI) vs J Isner (USA)

J Monaco (ARG) vs [Q] D Young (USA)

COURT 2 start 11:00 am

S Gonzalez (MEX) / C Kas (GER) vs D Bracciali (ITA) / A Ram (ISR)

M Melo (BRA) / B Soares (BRA) vs L Kubot (POL) / F Mayer (GER)

F Cermak (CZE) / F Polasek (SVK) vs T Bellucci (BRA) / A Seppi (ITA)

[WC] J Benneteau (FRA) / N Mahut (FRA) vs M Knowles (BAH) / X Malisse (BEL) - After Suitable Rest

Rick

ATP 2011


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