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November 17 • 02:25
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Paris: Del Potro withdraws; Joker doubtful; Federer atop Odds; Who Plays London, Who Plays France???



November 08, 2011
PARIS: The scariest contender for London beneath the top 8 (#10 Juan Del Potro) dropped out of Paris (and therefore out of contention) with a sore shoulder.

The man who should have been the scariest contender for the Paris title, Novak Djokovic, sounds very doubtful about his own chances - if he actually plays. Regarding his 3 set loss in Basel to Nishikori and his prospects in Paris, he said:

"I could barely serve for much of the match, I was in pain. My shoulder is very bad - we won't even talk about the 3rd set. I hope I will be ready for Paris - I don't think I will be able to train for the next few days."

Fighting ongoing back and shoulder pain, don't be surprised if he's hit his last competitive ball of the year.

Given the conditioning struggles of the top players relative to Federer, who feels rested, fit, and hungry to win Paris for the first time after his Basel title, #4 is now being perceived as more than the 'danger' he now states it is his goal to be in the months ahead. On Betfair, Roger is the favorite over Joker by more than 2:1, and over Murray by almost 2:1 (we may find that Murray is not entirely healthy, either). Beneath these 3, Tsonga at 7:1 (a former champion in Paris) is the only player with odds lower than 25:1 (Ferrer, who also looked sub-par in his last outing, losing in the semis in Valencia to Monaco).

Rog's chances would be further enhanced if not for the fact that the surface is now very, very slow, (Murray's words after practice). Last year it was fast, and Roger got to the semis (lost to Monfils).

Besides PARIS 1st round results and the schedule for Tuesday (BELOW), the last thing to report on today are the silly qualification scenarios for anyone below #8 to get in to LONDON. Some scenarios are so Byzantine that not even the ATP gets them right all the time, as illustrated when they declared last week that Berdych had qualified and 5 hours later admitted that they'd got their math wrong and were mistaken - after they'd informed Berdych and he'd publicly commented on it. If the ATP can't get it straight, should we try?

This table simplifies things, showing the current order among the 7 active contenders along with the round they need to reach to GUARANTEE qualification and the seeds in their bracket competing for that round:

Current RANK (YTD) Paris Result Needed Players competing in same Paris bracket/ H2H records

6. Berdych quarterfinals Verdasco, Bogomolov, #11 seed Tipsarevic /0-4 *

7. Tsonga quarterfinals Garcia-Lopez, Seppi, #9 Almagro / 5-0 **

8. Fish quarterfinals Mayer, Monaco, Young, #10 seed Simon / 1-2 ***

----------------

9. Almagro Champion (can qualify by reaching final, depending /****)

[10. Del Potro Withdrew, out of contention]

11. Tipsarevic Champion (can qualify by reaching final, depending /*****)

12. Simon Champion

[13. Soderling Inactive, out of contention]

14. Monfils Champion Will qualify unless Fish reaches 3rd round!

* (Berdych - Tipsarevic: 0 - 4) The Serb has beaten him twice in 2011 on hard courts, in the quarters of Montreal and the 3rd round of The Open.

** (Tsonga - Almagro: 5 - 0) In 2011, Jo has beaten him twice in straight sets, once on hard courts at Montreal.

*** (Fish - Simon: 1 - 2) In 2011, Fish lost to Simon at the french Open; on hard courts in 2010, he beat Gilles in Cincinnati.

**** IF Almagro loses in the final, he will qualify UNLESS three of these scenarios occur:

- Berdych reaches 3rd Rd

- Tsonga reaches 3rd Rd

- Fish reaches QF

- Tipsarevic wins title

- Simon wins title

***** IF Tipsarevic loses in the final, he will qualify UNLESS one of these scenarios occur:

- Fish reaches 3rd Rd

- Almagro wins title

- Monfils wins title

There are various alternative qualification scenarios for how each of the 7 men could qualify (depending on what other contenders do) - visit them on the ATP site if you wish a laugh. Here are the ones for FISH to qualify if he does not reach the quarters:

IF Fish loses in 2nd RD, he will qualify UNLESS one of these scenarios occur:

- Almagro reaches final

- Tipsarevic reaches final

- Simon wins title

- Monfils wins title

IF Fish loses in 3rd RD, he will qualify UNLESS three of these scenarios occur:

- Berdych reaches 3nd Rd

- Tsonga reaches 3rd Rd

- Almagro reaches final

- Tipsarevic wins title

- Simon wins title

Today's 1st round results:

07.11.2011 R64 N Mahut defeats J Ferrero 62 63 Match Stats H2H

07.11.2011 R64 A Mannarino defeats D Tursunov 62 62 Match Stats H2H

07.11.2011 R64 F Verdasco defeats M Cilic 36 62 63 Match Stats H2H

07.11.2011 R64 J Benneteau defeats M Raonic 67(5) 76(5) 64 Match Stats H2H

07.11.2011 R64 P Kohlschreiber defeats M Youzhny 64 62 Match Stats H2H

07.11.2011 R64 A Bogomolov Jr. defeats T Bellucci 46 76(4) 62 Match Stats H2H

07.11.2011 R64 G Garcia-Lopez defeats S Giraldo 64 16 64 Match Stats H2H

07.11.2011 R64 F Mayer defeats R Stepanek 75 63 Match Stats H2H

07.11.2011 R64 A Seppi defeats N Davydenko 76(2) 75 Match Stats H2H

07.11.2011 R64 K Anderson defeats G Muller 63 46 64 Match Stats H2H

Tuesday's Schedule:

TUESDAY, 8 NOVEMBER, 2011

CENTRAL COURT start 11:00 am

[5] T Berdych (CZE) vs F Verdasco (ESP)

M Llodra (FRA) vs F Lopez (ESP)

[13] A Roddick (USA) vs [WC] J Benneteau (FRA)

C Fleming (GBR) / J Murray (GBR) vs F Lopez (ESP) / F Verdasco (ESP)

Not Before 7:30 PM

G Garcia-Lopez (ESP) vs [6] J Tsonga (FRA)

Not Before 8:30 PM

[16] R Gasquet (FRA) vs K Anderson (RSA)

COURT 1 start 11:00 am

F Fognini (ITA) vs I Dodig (CRO)

K Nishikori (JPN) vs [Q] S Stakhovsky (UKR)

[WC] J Chardy (FRA) vs M Granollers (ESP)

S Wawrinka (SUI) vs J Isner (USA)

J Monaco (ARG) vs [Q] D Young (USA)

COURT 2 start 11:00 am

S Gonzalez (MEX) / C Kas (GER) vs D Bracciali (ITA) / A Ram (ISR)

M Melo (BRA) / B Soares (BRA) vs L Kubot (POL) / F Mayer (GER)

F Cermak (CZE) / F Polasek (SVK) vs T Bellucci (BRA) / A Seppi (ITA)

[WC] J Benneteau (FRA) / N Mahut (FRA) vs M Knowles (BAH) / X Malisse (BEL) - After Suitable Rest

Rick Devereux

erdevereux@gmail.com

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